The world faces a small but substantially increased risk over the next two decades of a major slowdown in the growth of global crop yields because of climate change, new research finds.

The authors, from Stanford University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), say the odds of a major production slowdown of wheat and corn even with a warming climate are not very high.

But the risk is about 20 times more significant than it would be without global warming, and it may require planning by organizations that are affected by international food availability and price.

“Climate change has substantially increased the prospect that crop production will fail to keep up with rising demand in the next 20 years,” said NCAR scientist Claudia Tebaldi, a co-author of the study.

Stanford professor David Lobell said he wanted to study the potential impact of climate change on agriculture in the next two decades because of questions he has received from stakeholders and decision makers in governments and the private sector.

“I’m often asked whether climate change will threaten food supply, as if it’s a simple yes or no answer,” Lobell said. “The truth is that over a 10- or 20-year period, it depends largely on how fast the Earth warms, and we can’t predict the pace of warming very precisely. So the best we can do is try to determine the odds.”

Lobell and Tebaldi used computer models of global climate, as well as data about weather and crops, to calculate the chances that climatic trends would have a negative effect of 10 percent on yields of corn and wheat in the next 20 years. This would have a major impact on food supply.

Yields would continue to increase but the slowdown would effectively cut the projected rate of increase by about half at the same time that demand is projected to grow sharply.

They found that the likelihood of natural climate shifts causing such a slowdown over the next 20 years is only 1 in 200. But when the authors accounted for human-induced global warming, they found that the odds jumped to 1 in 10 for corn and 1 in 20 for wheat.

The study appears in this month’s issue of Environmental Research Letters. It was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), which is NCAR’s sponsor, and by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

More crops needed worldwide

Global yields of crops such as corn and wheat have typically increased by about 1-2 percent per year in recent decades, and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization projects that global production of major crops will increase by 13 percent per decade through 2030 – likely the fastest rate of increase during the coming century.

However, global demand for crops is also expected to rise rapidly during the next two decades because of population growth, greater per-capita food consumption, and increasing use of biofuels.

Lobell and Tebaldi set out to estimate the odds that climate change could interfere with the ability of crop producers to keep up with demand.

Whereas other climate research had looked at the crop impacts that were most likely, Lobell and Tebaldi decided to focus on the less likely but potentially more dangerous scenario that climate change would reduce yield growth by 10 percent or more.

The researchers used simulations available from an NCAR-based climate model (developed by teams of scientists with support from NSF and DOE), as well as several other models, to provide trends in temperature and precipitation over the next two decades for crop-intensive regions under a scenario of increasing carbon dioxide.

They also used the same model simulations without human-caused increases in carbon dioxide to assess the same trends in a natural climate.

In addition, they ran statistical analyses to estimate the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on wheat and corn yields in various regions of the globe and during specific times of the year that coincide with the most important times of the growing seasons for those two crops.

The authors quantified the extent to which warming temperatures would correlate with reduced yields.

For example, an increase of 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) would slow corn yields by 7 percent and wheat yields by 6 percent.

Depending on the crop-growing region, the odds of such a temperature increase in the next 20 years were about 30 to 40 percent in simulations that included increases in carbon dioxide. In contrast, such temperature increases had a much lower chance of occurring in stimulations that included only natural variability, not human-induced climate change.

Although society could offset the climate impacts by planting wheat and corn in cooler regions, such planting shifts to date have not occurred quickly enough to offset warmer temperatures, the study warned.

The authors also found little evidence that other adaptation strategies, such as changes in crop varieties or growing practices, would totally offset the impact of warming temperatures.

“Although further study may prove otherwise we do not anticipate adaptation being fast enough to significantly alter the near-term risks estimated in this paper,” they wrote.

“We can’t predict whether a major slowdown in crop growth will actually happen, and the odds are still fairly low,” said Tebaldi. “But climate change has increased the odds to the point that organizations concerned with food security or global stability need to be aware of this risk.”

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

LAKEPORT, Calif. – Lake County Farm Bureau held its 91st annual meeting and dinner combined with the “Love of the Land” fundraiser last week at the Cole Creek Equestrian Center in Kelseyville.

The annual event, held July 16, brought together more than 200 members of the Lake County agricultural community.

Attendees included local farmers and ranchers, county leaders, members of the Mendocino Farm Bureau and representation from the California Farm Bureau Federation, and friends, family and children of the Lake County Farm Bureau.

The evening’s festivities kicked off with a wine mixer hosted by the Lake County Winery Association.

A flag ceremony led by the Kelseyville Boy Scout Troop and invocation by Gary Sack, California Farm Bureau Federation field director, preceded a delicious tri-tip and chicken dinner prepared by the Kelseyville FFA followed by the Lake County Farm Bureau Membership Meeting and the third Annual Dessert Auction.

Lake County Farm Bureau 2014-15 President David Rosenthal introduced the new slate of directors.

In addition to Rosenthal, the 17-member board includes Glenn Benjamin, Keith Brandt, Terry Dereniuk, Robert Gayaldo, Diane Henderson, Paul Lauenroth, Jeff Lyon, Beau Moore, Dave Mostin, Greg Panella, Monica Rosenthal, Pat Scully, Craig Shannon, Daniel Suenram, Rob Suenram and Gary Wielen.

The board of directors represent all districts in Lake County and all agricultural interests of the region.

“While I look forward to this event every year, the 91st annual Lake County Farm Bureau Meeting and Dinner was especially fun,” said Rosenthal.

There was increase in the presence of youth which brought renewed energy to this annual farming event and a healthy vision of the future of Lake County agriculture.”

This year’s Agriculture Appreciation Award went to Annette Hopkins for her role in founding and developing the Lake County AgVenture program.

Now in its fourth year, AgVenture is an innovative concept designed to build a bridge of understanding between those in agriculture and leaders in the community who influence the public opinion and policies which directly affect Lake County farmers’ ability to farm.

Others honored for their commitment to Lake County Farm Bureau include Marc Hooper, for his service as president from 2012 to 2014; Claudia Street, for her service as executive director from 2012 to 2014; and Shirley Campbell, acknowledged for being the newest 2014 member of the local Farm Bureau Presidents Club.

Local Chacewater winemaker Mark Burch served as the spirited auctioneer and was accompanied by musical sound bites from “Sounds Like Fun” DJ Anthony Barthel.

A selection of farm-themed baked goods raised more than $3,000 for the Lake County Farm Bureau scholarship fund for local youth pursuing careers in agriculture.

Scholarship recipients Lindee Jones, Ian Seevers and Rebecca Pachie were acknowledged for their stellar academic performance and Blair Brookes, Lake County Farm Bureau summer intern, was introduced during the event program.

A highlight of the evening was the announcement of the new Lake County Farm Bureau executive director, Allison Tucker.

Tucker is a graduate of Arizona State University where she majored in global agribusiness. She brings a passion for farming and has an impressive background of FFA activities culminating in being an assistant coach to an FFA Stat Champion Parliamentary Procedure Team.

The Lake County Farm Bureau 91st annual meeting and dinner was sponsored by Bella Vista Farming Co., Six Sigma Winery, Calpine Corp., Cole Creek Equestrian Center, Dunken Pumps Inc., Yokayo Wine Co., Duarte Nursery, Scully Packing Co., State Compensation Insurance Fund, American Ag Credit, Lincoln-Leavitt Insurance Agency, Sutter Lakeside Hospital, The Pear Doctor, Cold Creek Compost, Ag Unlimited Lakeport, Henderson & Rhoner Orchards, Lake County Rodeo Association, Savings Bank of Mendocino, UCC Rentals, Bob Bartley Pump Inc., North Lake Medical Pharmacy, RB Pest Control, Braito’s Marina, Konocti Vista Resort and Casino, Bengard Marketing and Big Valley Properties.

The Farm Bureau thanked the many volunteers, the dessert auction bakers and the Kelseyville FFA for making this event possible. A special thank you goes to the Kelseyville Boy Scout Troup #45 for their assistance and commitment to the Lake County Farm Bureau annual event, to UCC rentals for providing the rentals, Kristen Krohn for her photography skills, and to John and Joanne Van Eck for graciously hosting the 91st LCFB Celebration 2014.

Lake County Farm Bureau is a nonprofit organization with a volunteer board whose purpose is to protect and promote the agricultural interests and economy in Lake County and to find solutions for the challenges facing farmers and the agriculture industry today.

For more information about Lake County Farm Bureau or to find out how you can join the Farm Bureau today, please contact Executive Director Allison Tucker at 707-263-0911 or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .

KELSEYVILLE, Calif. – The Lake County Winegrape Commission officially opened the doors to its new office and education center last month, hosting an open house to welcome winegrape growers, industry representatives and the public.

Commission Chairman Peter Molnar and Board Members welcomed visitors to the office at 3865 Main St. in Kelseyville during the open house event.

Guests enjoyed wine tasting and appetizers while listening to music performed by local guitarist Jim Williams.

Approximately 150 attended the gathering, which was complemented by an official ribbon cutting by the Lake County Chamber of Commerce.

The event featured a tasting of the newest Lake County Sauvignon Blanc releases from Art+Farm’s The Girls in the Vineyard, Brassfield Estate, Cache Creek Vineyards, Chacewater, Fetzer’s Bonterra, Gregory Graham Wines, Guenoc, High Valley Vineyards, Shed Horn Cellars, Shannon Ridge Vineyards, Six Sigma Ranch & Winery, Smiling Dogs Ranch, Steele’s Shooting Star, Thorn Hill Vineyards and Wildhurst Vineyards.

The office space also was designed to accommodate meetings and workshops.

“The commission’s new space includes office space plus an education center that enables us to host workshops, tastings, our Master Vigneron classes and other events,” Commission President Debra Sommerfield said. “It also will provide a community gathering space for local grape growers to get together and for other agriculture-related organizations to host meetings.”

Sommerfield expressed gratitude on behalf of the commission for all of the support in preparing the space and presenting the event with special thanks to the many wineries who provided wine; local artists Annette and Robert Higday; local photographer Nathan DeHart; Mark Borghesani and Mike McQueen for the space renovation; Rick Hamilton for signage; Beth Havrilla and the team at Lake Event Design for their assistance in beautifying the space; Rosey Cooks who catered the event; Allied Grape Growers who donated the raffle prize; and event staffers Valerie Ramirez, Mireya Turner and Jessica Myers.

Just prior to the open house, the Commission Board of Directors met for its regular monthly meeting.

The board officially seated two new and two returning board members elected by local grape growers, approved the commission’s 2014-15 budget, and set the grower assessment rate at 1 percent for the 2014 marketing season.

Bonnie Sears and Bill Oldham joined the board while Jonathan Walters and Broc Zoller were reelected to their board seats.

In other board business, officers for the coming year were selected with Molnar continuing to serve as commission chair, Walters as vice chair and David Weiss as secretary-treasurer.

Committee chairs were appointed: Walters as Executive Committee chair, Zoller as Research and Education Committee chair, Molnar as marketing chair, Buz Dereniuk as Finance Committee chair, and Bill Brunetti as Community/Industry Relations Committee chair.

Board members thanked and recognized Jeff Lyon and Randy Krag for eight years of service on the commission board, with Molnar noting their dedication and contributions to the commission’s programs and work.

The Lake County Winegrape Commission is a marketing order established in 1991 to promote the region’s premium winegrapes and to assist the region’s winegrape growers.

The purpose of the Lake County Winegrape Commission is to implement effective marketing, education, and research programs on behalf of Lake County winegrape growers.
 
For information about the Lake County Winegrape Commission and its programs, call the commission office at 707-279-2633 or go online to www.lakecountywinegrape.org .