How to resolve AdBlock issue? AccuWeather reported that meteorological spring starts on March 1, while astronomical spring begins during the March equinox at 5:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on March 20.
Forecasters said last month was the coldest January overall in the U.S. since 2011.
AccuWeather long-range experts say a colder start to spring is expected across the Pacific Northwest due to a persistent pattern of stormy weather which has brought rain and some high elevation snow to Lake County in recent weeks.
Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist and lead long range forecaster for Accuweather, spoke to Lake County News about the local weather outlook.
Pastelok noted that Northern California had quite a bit of rain last year to start off the spring.
This year, February again has had a wet start, and Pastelok expects that there will be more weather systems grazing Northern California in March.
Those systems are expected to come south from the Pacific Northwest and bring near to average rainfall in March.
He noted that the state’s reservoirs are doing well for storage. “We’re slightly above average” in the major reservoirs’ levels, he said.
In Lake County, Clear Lake was just under 7.70 feet Rumsey, the special measure for the lake, early Thursday morning. The lake is full at 7.56 feet Rumsey gauge.
As is typical, later in the spring — in April and May — Pastelok anticipates a normal dropoff in rainfall. He said the May rainfall totals may be below average.
“We’re going to see this big area of higher pressure develop quite quickly” across the Southwest and expand northward, Pastelok said. That will cause a block to precipitation and not allow many significant weather systems to come in, leading to drier conditions.
Pastelok said the higher pressure starts to build quicker across the Four Corners and expands westward.
“People shouldn’t fear, we’re still good for water levels,” he said, explaining he doesn’t see it getting really warm, especially in late April or early May, but that there will be a gradual rise in temperatures.
He said there have been near average temperatures this year so far, and those may rise above average in May and June, but conditions are not expected to be severe.
When he did the long range forecast, he said he classified Northern California as having a “more typical transition” into spring, with that slow retreat from the northern storm track and a gradual drop off of precipitation.
Late spring isn’t expected to have major warming, but summer looks like it could be hotter, said Pastelok.
Regarding agriculture, Pastelok said there could be a chilly few days in late March, when forecasters are looking at frost potential in a worst case scenario.
He doesn’t see a lot of atmospheric river activity in the region later in the spring. There will be some weather systems in March but he doesn’t expect to see persistent heavy rain.
Weak La Niña in play
Forecasters said water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean play a major role in weather patterns around the world, as well as where storms track over the United States.
AccuWeather long-range experts say La Niña is currently underway. Water temperatures reached official La Niña status in late December.
“The La Niña pattern occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels for an extended amount of time. This process is the exact opposite of El Niño, a phase in which sea surface temperatures rise to above-average levels,” AccuWeather reported.
La Niña, which translates to “little girl” in Spanish, and El Niño, which translates to “little boy” in Spanish, are two phases of a three-pronged natural climate pattern that occurs across a large portion of the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, according go to an AccuWeather report.
AccuWeather said ENSO's three phases are broken down into La Niña's cool phase, El Niño's warm phase and a phase that is neither warm nor cool, known as neutral.
Last week, the annual La Niña official statement came out forecasting a weak system for this year.
“It’s still a weak La Niña,” Pastelok said.
He added, “It never got strong anyway, which we didn’t expect.”
AccuWeather said meteorologists often refer to the effects of climate patterns using a concept known as teleconnections. Teleconnections are a series of factors, like sea surface temperatures, that can have implications on weather conditions in areas far from the origin of those factors.
La Niña can shift where the core of severe weather erupts over the U.S. during the spring, what part of the West Coast is the focal point of storms from the Pacific and what parts of the country have more cooldowns than dramatic warmups, AccuWeather said.
“We are looking at a weak La Niña setup as we go into the start of the spring season,” Pastelok explained. “Even if La Niña ends during the spring, there is a lag where it can have a continual influence on the atmosphere and the overall storm track across North America.”
Pastelok said water temperatures are slightly below average offshore which is keeping the region from getting really warm very quickly this spring.
He said La Niña may be neutral in the spring. “The La Niña always has a lag,” he said.
Looking at past La Niñas, Pastelok said they can cause lingering conditions. He expects conditions to remain active until early spring, then weaken.
Pastelok said there is a spring barrier time period when forecasts don’t do well with predicting El Niño and La Niña. Last year’s forecast showed that, when predictions of conditions did not come true until December.
How our warming climate is impacting the spring season
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson said the overall trend for the spring season in the U.S. is getting warmer.
Climatological records show that average spring temperatures have increased roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit across the contiguous U.S. since 1970, AccuWeather said.
“The AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Spring Forecast for the Southwest favors warmer and drier conditions compared to the historical average, which is in line with the longer-term spring trends that we are seeing for precipitation and average temperature. Many areas, especially across Arizona and New Mexico, are warming an average of 0.5 to 1 degree Fahrenheit per decade during the spring season,” Anderson explained. “Large portions of Southern California and Arizona are losing an average of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation per decade during the spring. There has also been a notable decrease in the frequency of spring river flooding across large portions of the Southwest during the spring season since the mid-1960s.”
AccuWeather said the overall trend of warmer spring seasons in the U.S. can mean an earlier and more intense seasonal allergy season, earlier mountain snowmelt, and a longer growing season for farmers and gardeners.
Warmer springs can also lead to more problems with pests like fleas, ticks and mosquitoes becoming active and reproducing earlier in the season. That also raises concerns about diseases like West Nile virus, which made an appearance in Lake County last year.
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