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- Written by: Dr. Tony Phillips
Out near the orbit of Jupiter, a faint speck of light is moving through the black of space.
At first glance it doesn’t look like much, no brighter than a thousand distant stars speckling the velvet sky behind it; indeed, it takes a big telescope make out that it is a comet.
But what a comet it could turn out to be ….
Later this year, “Comet ISON” could blossom into a striking naked eye object visible even in broad daylight.
“Comet ISON is a sungrazer,” explained Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab. “The orbit of the comet will bring it very close to the sun, which we know can be a spectacular thing.”
Russian astronomers Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok found the comet in September 2012. It bears the name of their night-sky survey program, the International Scientific Optical Network.
As 2013 unfolds, the comet is still very far away—near the orbit of Jupiter. That’s why it looks like a speck.
“But for an object at such extreme distance, it is actually very bright,” said Battams.
The comet’s glow suggests that is spewing gas and dust from a fairly large nucleus – “in the 1 to 10 km range,” estimated Matthew Knight of the Lowell Observatory.
On Nov. 28, 2013, this “dirty snowball” will fly through the sun’s atmosphere little more than a million km from the stellar surface.
If the comet survives – a big IF – it could emerge glowing as brightly as the Moon, briefly visible near the sun in broad daylight. The comet’s dusty tail stretching into the night sky could create a worldwide sensation.
Some reporters have started calling ISON the “Comet of the Century,” but Don Yeomans of NASA Near-Earth Object Program thinks that’s premature.
“I’m old enough to remember the last ‘Comet of the Century’,” he said.
In 1973, a distant comet named Kohoutek looked like it would put on a great show, much like ISON.
The actual apparition was such a letdown that Johnny Carson made jokes about it on The Tonight Show.
“It fizzled,” said Yeomans. “Comets are notoriously unpredictable.”
“Comet ISON has the potential to live up to the hype, but it also has the potential to do nothing,” agreed Battams.
One hazard is the sun. Tidal forces and solar radiation have been known to destroy comets.
A recent example is Comet Elenin, which broke apart and dissipated in 2011 as it approached the sun. Elenin, however, was a much smaller comet.
A better comparison, perhaps, is Comet Lovejoy, which flew through the sun’s atmosphere in 2011. Lovejoy emerged intact and wowed observers with a garish tail for weeks.
“Comet ISON is probably at least twice as big as Comet Lovejoy and will pass a bit farther from the sun’s surface,” said Knight. “This would seem to favor Comet ISON surviving and ultimately putting on a good show.”
One of the most exciting possibilities would be a partial breakup.
“If Comet ISON splits, it might appear as a ‘string of pearls’ when viewed through a telescope,” said Battams. “It might even resemble the famous Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 that hit Jupiter in 1994.”
A breakup would pose no threat to Earth, said Yeomans. “Comet ISON is not on a collision course. If it breaks up, the fragments would continue along the same safe trajectory as the original comet.”
Whatever happens, northern sky watchers will get a good view.
For months after it swings by the sun, Comet ISON will be well placed for observers in the northern hemisphere.
It will pass almost directly over the North Pole, making it a circumpolar object visible all night long.
Will Comet ISON fizzle ... or sizzle? Stay tuned for updates.
Dr. Tony Phillips works for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
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- Written by: Elizabeth Larson
KELSEYVILLE, Calif. – In the wake of the death of a young Kelseyville man shot during a Friday night armed robbery, the shaken community has reacted with remembrances and an effort to raise a substantial reward.
Forrest Seagrave, a clerk at Mt. Konocti Gas and Mart – also known as “Store 24” – was shot in the chest at close range with a handgun during the nighttime robbery, as Lake County News has reported.
The assailant was described by witnesses as having worn dark clothing, including a hoodie, and a bandanna around his face.
After shooting Seagrave the male suspect was reported to have fled on foot across a nearby field, making away with a small amount of cash. He remained at large on Saturday.
Seagrave, who had worked at the store since 2006, was taken to Sutter Lakeside Hospital, where it was reported that he had died early Saturday morning.
A candlelight vigil in Seagrave's memory is scheduled to take place at Mt. Konocti Gas, located at 5475 Main St., beginning at 7 p.m. Saturday. Organizers are asking the community for donations to help Seagrave’s family.
County Supervisor Rob Brown, whose district includes the Kelseyville area, knew Seagrave, who had gone to Kelseyville High School at the same time as Brown's eldest son.
On Saturday morning Brown said he confirmed Seagrave's death with the Lake County Sheriff's Office, which had not yet put out a report on the shooting by early afternoon.
The gas station, which is temporarily closed for the investigation, was taped off shortly after the shooting, and sheriff's detectives along with Lake County District Attorney's Office investigators were working at the scene on Saturday. K-Corps was conducting a grid search of the field through which the suspect had fled.
On Saturday morning, Brown – who called the shooting a “senseless and tragic event” – began an effort to put together a $10,000 reward to lead to the arrest of the suspect.
In an email to community leaders, Brown wrote, “Not only is this sad for his family and our community, it is a frightening event in the seeming evolution of our little town as of late,” pointing out that the store is near Kelseyville High School.
Brown said the community needed to act, and he was beginning by raising the reward money to help the sheriff's office in its effort “to capture the animal that did this.”
He set as a goal a $10,000 reward, and by 1:30 p.m. said he had between $7,500 and $8,000 of it collected. Anyone wishing to donate can contact Brown at 707-349-2628.
Brown, who works as a bail bondsman, vowed to use his resources – both financial and his informants – to help capture the suspect.
Not long after it was reported he had died, Seagrave's Facebook page began to fill up with posts from his devastated friends, who wrote of their shock, sorrow and disbelief.
They also recalled his kindness, generosity and fun, paying tribute to his “heart of gold.”
Lake County News also was told by community members about Seagrave's courtesy to the store’s customers, including chivalrously walking women to their cars if he felt they needed protection.
Those posting on Seagrave’s Facebook page said he didn't have friends, he had family. He was generous, thoughtful, and concerned about those in his life.
His friend David Shary wrote, “Things like this never make sense. They never will. You were the nicest person I knew, the nicest person a lot of us knew.”
Shary told Lake County News in a separate message, “Whenever someone dies, everyone says the person was the kindest person alive. Well, in this case, it was actually true.”
Email Elizabeth Larson at
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- Written by: Lake County News reports
LOWER LAKE, Calif. – A Clearlake man died early Saturday when his vehicle went off the road and hit a tree.
The 29-year-old man, whose identity was not being released pending family notification, was the lone victim of the crash, which occurred at approximately 12:08 a.m. Saturday, according to the California Highway Patrol's Clear Lake Area office.
The driver was heading northbound on Highway 29 north of Marsh View Way in a 2012 Chevrolet Malibu when, for reasons still under investigation, he drove off the right shoulder and hit a tree, the CHP said.
The CHP said the man sustained fatal injuries and was pronounced dead at the scene.
The report noted that the man was not wearing his seat belt.
The crash remains under investigation by CHP Officer Matt Norton.
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- Written by: Elizabeth Larson
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The seasonal flu is gaining steam in California, with state health officials reporting Friday that the annual illness is now widespread across the state, although no increase of cases has been reported locally.
Flu activity in California has reached higher levels than expected for this time of year, Dr. Gil Chavez, deputy director for the Center for Infectious Diseases and state epidemiologist, said Friday.
Chavez said the seasonal flu usually peaks around late February and early March.
Despite a greater number of cases occurring earlier thus far in the season, the California Department of Public Health said the state’s seasonal flu outbreak remains within the normal range of cases seen in previous years.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that high flu activity is ongoing nationwide, with the season having started earlier than normal.
In California this past week another flu-related death was reported in a person under age 65, bringing the total to five deaths for that age group for the flu season so far, said Chavez. The deaths were reported in the Sacramento, Southern California and Central Valley areas of the state.
Chavez said mortality in the under 65 age group is monitored to gauge how virulent the flu is. He said the state doesn’t have a means for tracking total cases.
No pediatric flu deaths have been reported so far this flu season in California, and there also have not been reports of any novel flu strains, according to the state flu surveillance report.
The good news, according to Chavez, is that nearly 100 percent of the strains now active in California and nationwide are in this year’s flu vaccine.
The California Department of Public Health said in its weekly flu surveillance report that three flu specimens tested from California residents were all components of the 2012-13 flu vaccine.
Chavez said the strains active this year include influenza Type A strains H1N1 and H3N3, the latter being more predominant.
Lake County Public Health Officer Dr. Karen Tait said there has been no significant flu activity reported in Lake County, either anecdotally or reportable cases, the latter referring to deaths of patients under age 65.
However, Tait said she expects to see more flu activity in the coming months, as the state moves toward the traditional peak time.
“Bottom line – get vaccinated,” she said.
Tait said Lake County Public Health has been giving a lot of flu shots, and they are now down to their last couple hundred doses, so they are going to ask the state about ordering more.
State and local health officials continue to emphasize the importance not just of being vaccinated but also following other basic health care precautions, including staying home if one is sick, washing hands frequently, and not touching one’s eyes, nose or mouth.
Health care workers statewide have a flu vaccination rate of about 60 percent, according to the state’s 2010-11 Influenza Vaccination Report, and Chavez said they are encouraged to be vaccinated as a way of ensuring safety for their patients.
For those with underlying health issues, as well as those who are elderly or very young, the flu can be particularly severe, said Chavez.
Chavez said the flu vaccine is still available. There are 15 million doses of flu vaccine remaining with the manufacturers ready for distribution and many doses already in the current pipeline to secondary distributors, retail pharmacies and health care providers.
He said so far this flu season 18 million doses have been distributed to health care providers and pharmacies in California, including 1.8 million doses for the California Department of Public Health’s Vaccine For Children’s program and 629,000 doses to local health departments.
For people with flu risk factors such as pregnancy, diabetes, asthma and heart disease, or if they are a senior or young child, Tait emphasized the importance of seeing a doctor early if symptoms such as fever, sore throat and cough arise.
Lake County Public Health is offering flu shots, as are North Lake Medical Pharmacy and the pharmacies at Kmart, Safeway and CVS in Lakeport, and Lake Pharmacy and Rite Aid in Clearlake, according to www.flu.gov .
For information on getting a flu shot, call Lake County Public Health at 707-263-1090 or call your local health provider, who also may have shots available.
Information about the flu and vaccine availability, including a map of local flu shot providers, can be found at www.flu.gov .
Email Elizabeth Larson at