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Based on in-house expertise and ongoing research among West Coast wineries, the report reiterates the prior prediction that the market will be slow to fully recover, predicts year over year sales declines for calendar year 2009, but also forecasts modest growth at the producer level in 2010.
The growth prediction is tempered by observations of continuing economic softness and demographic shifts that are creating headwinds against a quick return to the business conditions that were considered normal prior to Q3 2008.
"Our current research is showing that the wine businesses continue to be pushed in this economic environment, and there is no expectation that what was normal for the past decade will return in short order," said Rob McMillan, founder of Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division and author of the report. "Defining a new normal and acting on that is more prudent than waiting for the old normal to return."
Emerging demographic shifts in particular will impact sales and marketing strategies for fine wines as target consumers change spending patterns, and potentially exit the market altogether.
"For that segment of Baby Boomers who have seen their net worth drastically reduced and who have been the prime target of wine marketing for nearly 20 years, a $50 bottle of wine is now permanently out of the question for a normal purchase," McMillan said.
Early reports for Q4 2009 sales suggest improvement over the same period in 2008, an expected down year for the full year 2009, but positive growth in the fine wine business in 2010. However, the report continues, true recovery will take time due to lasting, negative economic changes in housing, consumer wealth, consumer credit, business spending and restaurant sales.
"Not all the changes we're seeing and expecting during an ongoing correction and recovery will be permanent and it's not all doom and gloom, but everyone in this business should expect that the future will be quite different than the past decade in fine wine," McMillan said.
Silicon Valley Bank's Annual State of the Wine Industry Report due for release in the spring captures trends and addresses critical issues facing the U.S. wine industry.
Given the state of the economy and the need for wine businesses to think critically about their strategies, these preliminary findings intend to offer data, trends and observations that businesses can use during their 2010 - 2011 planning.
For a copy of Silicon Valley Bank's 2010-2011 preliminary findings report, please visit www.svb.com/pdfs/wine/StateoftheWineIndustry1109.pdf .
To receive an invitation to participate in Silicon Valley Bank's annual on-line survey and thus receive survey results, please e-mail Penny Northrop (
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"Wells Fargo convinced thousands of investors to purchase auction-rate securities with promises of robust returns and liquidity, but when the market collapsed, investors were left out in the cold," Brown said. "Based on misleading advice, investors bought these risky securities. Now, retail investors and small businesses are finally getting their money back."
Under the settlement, Wells Fargo will buy back $1.4 billion in non-liquid auction-rate securities from thousands of retail customers, charities, and small businesses nationwide, including about $700 million to California investors.
The company also has agreed to pay $1.9 million in fines and expenses.
“We have been working with ARS issuers since the auction rate market froze, and while there has been progress, redemptions by issuers have not occurred as fast as anyone would have hoped or predicted. We are glad to have resolved this for our customers through an actual repurchase of their ARS,” said Charles W. Daggs, chief executive officer of Wells Fargo Investments LLC.
In February 2008, nationwide auction markets froze, and investors have been unable to sell their securities.
Earlier this year, Brown filed the suit against three Wells Fargo affiliates-Wells Fargo Investments LLC; Wells Fargo Brokerage Services LLC; and Wells Fargo Institutional Securities LLC-for violating California's Securities Law.
Brown's suit contended that Wells Fargo routinely misrepresented, marketed and sold auction-rate securities as safe, liquid and cash-like investments, omitting material facts.
The company also was charged with failing to supervise and train its sales agents and selling unsuitable investments.
The lawsuit alleged that Wells Fargo ignored clear industry and internal warnings about risk and previous auction failure.
In March 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the "Big 4" accounting firms, and the Financial Accounting Standards Board all determined that auction-rate securities should not be considered "cash equivalents."
Despite these warnings, Brown alleged Wells Fargo continued to aggressively sell and falsely market auction-rate securities as safe, liquid, cash-like investments until the nationwide auction markets froze in early 2008.
In marketing and selling these investments, the Attorney General's Office held that Wells Fargo failed to inform investors about how auction-rate securities or the auction process worked, as well as the risks and consequences of auction failure.
Wells Fargo maintained that, since shortly after the liquidity crisis hit in 2008, and well before any firm agreed to a buyback in connection with an ARS settlement, it has been voluntarily providing significant liquidity to customers who purchased Auction Rate Preferred Securities (ARPs).
The company reported that, since April 2008, these customers have had access to up to 90 percent of the par value of their ARPs through a Wells Fargo loan at advantageous rates that is non-recourse as to principal. The loan was intended to provide temporary liquidity until issuers refinanced their ARS.
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