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- Written by: Lake County News reports
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the institute has released ongoing projections as Lake County News has reported.
IHME’s updated death projections total 137,184 cumulative COVID-19 deaths – the estimate range is from 102,783 to 223,489 – through the beginning of August. This follows the Institute’s May 4 forecast of 134,475 deaths.
“The increase is explained primarily by people’s movements, as captured in anonymous mobility data from cell phones,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “We’re also seeing fewer deaths expected in some states; however, we’re now forecasting slower downward trajectories in deaths after states hit their peaks in daily deaths.”
Murray noted that IHME’s models are not yet predicting a resurgence or “return to exponential growth” of the epidemic in the US.
IHME said its forecasts will change as it acquires and analyzes new data. In addition, the organization’s modeling assumes that mandates currently in place will stay in place until infections are minimized.
Other positive indications come from increasing testing, the presumption that those testing positive are self-isolating, as well as increases in temperature.
IHME has found that when the outdoor temperature increases 1 degree Celsius, there is evidence the rate of virus transmission drops between 2 and 3 percent.
The findings also show that, over the last few weeks, five states – Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Georgia – have seen at least a 20 percentage point increase in mobility patterns.
In addition, 13 states have experienced between a 15 and 20 percentage point increase: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
“While at least some of these patterns may be related to formal easing of social distancing policies, this upward trend in movement began in several places long before state-level mandates were relaxed,” Murray said. “Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive, and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections.”
Among other new findings:
– New York: Forecasting 31,620 deaths (estimate range of 30,105 to 33,954) through August 4, down from May 4 projection of 32,132 deaths
– Michigan: Forecasting 6,217 deaths (estimate range of 5,394 to 8,036) through August 4, down from May 4 projection of 7,080 deaths
– California: Forecasting 6,086 deaths (estimate range of 4,187 to 9,855) through August 4, up from May 4 projection of 4,666 deaths
– Texas: Forecasting 2,567 deaths (estimate range of 1,513 to 5,487) through August 4, down from May 4 forecast of 3,632
– Florida: Forecasting 5,440 deaths (estimate range of 3,027 to 11,592) through August, up from May 4 projection of 3,971 deaths
– New Jersey: Forecasting 14,752 deaths (estimate range of 12,255 to 19,594) through August 4, down from May 4 projection of 16,044 deaths
– Georgia: Forecasting 3,596 deaths (estimate range of 2,139 to 7,078) through August 4, down from May 4 projection of 4,913
IHME’s current forecasting lasts through Aug. 4.
Subsequent projections likely will extend into October and will include potential effects of students returning to school.
The new death projections for the US and all states are available in the Institute’s COVID-19 data visualization at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america .
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- Written by: Elizabeth Larson
The board will meet virtually beginning at 9 a.m. Tuesday, May 12, in the board chambers on the first floor of the Lake County Courthouse, 255 N. Forbes St., Lakeport.
The meeting can be watched live on Channel 8 and online at https://countyoflake.legistar.com/Calendar.aspx . Accompanying board documents, the agenda and archived board meeting videos also are available at that link.
Because the meeting will be held virtually, members of the public are asked to submit comments on items to
At 9:02 a.m., Public Health Officer Dr. Gary Pace will give the board his weekly update on the COVID-19 pandemic.
At 11:15 a.m., the board will consider the “Great Plates Delivered” program, a state-authorized program for delivering meals to eligible older adults.
In other business, at 11:30 a.m. Treasurer-Tax Collector Barbara Ringen will give the board an update on a tax-defaulted land sale that had been set for the end of May. Ringen’s report said the sale has been canceled due to the governor's executive order.
The full agenda follows.
TIMED ITEMS
4.2, 9:02 a.m.: Consideration of update on COVID-19.
4.3, 11 a.m.: Consideration of amendment to the agreement between the county of Lake and the Skylark Shores Resort for COVID-19 emergency isolation housing and authorize the chair to sign.
4.4, 11:15 a.m.: Consideration of COVID-19 “Great Plates Delivered” program.
4.5, 11:30 a.m.: Consideration of status update on tax-defaulted land sale 157 due to the COVID-19 crisis.
4.6, 1 p.m.: Presentation of Employee Service Awards.
4.7, 1:15 p.m.: Presentation of proclamation designating the week of May 10 to 16, 2020, as Wildfire Preparedness Week in Lake County.
4.8, 1:20 p.m.: Presentation of annual report by Lake County PEG TV.
4.9, 1:45 p.m.: Second reading, consideration of an ordinance amending Chapter 21, Article 27 of the Lake County Code pertaining to commercial cannabis cultivation.
4.10, 1:50 p.m.: Consideration of resolution to initiate amendments to the zoning ordinance to amend regulations and development standards for commercial cannabis cultivation.
4.11, 2 p.m.: Consideration of advisory board appointment: South Lake County Fire Protection District Board of Directors.
UNTIMED ITEMS
5.1: Adopt proclamation designating the week of May 10 to 16, 2020, as Wildfire Preparedness Week.
5.2: Approve minutes of the Board of Supervisors meetings from April 21, 2020, and April 28, 2020.
5.3: Adopt resolution approving cooperative Agreement No. 20-73-06-0256-RA with the USDA to provide an Animal Damage Control Program for the county of Lake.
5.4: Adopt resolution adopting Agreement No. 19-0994-005-SF with California Department of Food and Agriculture for compliance with the European Grapevine Moth detection program and authorization execution thereof.
5.5: (a) Waive the formal bidding process, pursuant to Lake County Code Section 38.2 as it is not in the public interest due to the unique nature of goods or services; and (b) approve agreement between the county of Lake and BHC Sierra Vista Hospital for acute inpatient psychiatric hospital services and professional services associated with acute inpatient psychiatric hospitalizations for fiscal year 2019-20 in the amount of $25,454.00 and authorize the board chair to sign the agreement.
5.6: (a) Waive the formal bidding process, pursuant to Lake County Code Section 38.2, as it is not in the public interest due to the unique nature of goods or services; and (b) approve Amendment No. 1 between the county of Lake and LocumTenens.com LLC for telepsychiatry services for fiscal year 2019-20 for an increase to the contract maximum to $390,000 and authorize the board chair to sign the agreement.
5.7: (a) Waive the formal bidding process, pursuant to Lake County Code Section 38.2, as it is not in the public interest due to the unique nature of goods or services; and (b) approve the first amendment to the agreement between the county of Lake and Charis Youth Center for specialty mental health services for fiscal year 2019-20 to increase the contract maximum to $45,000 and authorize the board chair to sign.
5.8: Approve waiver of the 900-hour extra help limit for Records Technician Von Morshed.
5.9: Approve the electronic submission of the grant application for the US Department of Justice Coronavirus Supplemental Funding Program and authorize the chairman to sign the documents.
5.10: Approve the purchase of kitchen equipment from Myers Food Service Equipment Supply and authorize the sheriff to issue a purchase order in the amount of $9,545.34.
5.11: Approve the Standard Agreement #19-5006 between the county of Lake and the California Department of Social Services for quality assurance services in the amount of $108,695 for the term of July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2024.
5.12: Approve contract between the county of Lake and North Coast Opportunities Inc. for the Housing Support Program in the amount of $415,540, from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020, and authorize the chair to sign.
5.13: Approve addendum to agreement by and between the county of Lake and Megabyte Systems Inc. to purchase the transient occupancy tax module for the amount of $25,000 and authorize the chair to sign.
5.14: Sitting as the Lake County Watershed Protection District Board of Directors, adopt resolution authorizing the Water Resources director to sign the notice of completion for the 2019 Evaluation of Levee Culverts Project, Upper Lake, CA Bid No. WR 19-01.
Email Elizabeth Larson at
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- Written by: Lake County News reports
As such, motorcycle-involved crashes in California continue to be a major concern for the California Highway Patrol.
From January 2018 through December 2018, provisional statistical data revealed there were 22 injury crashes involving motorcycles and one fatal crash involving motorcycles in the CHP Clear Lake Area jurisdiction.
In an effort to reduce the number of motorcycle incidents or crashes resulting from unsafe speed, following too closely, unsafe lane changes, improper turning, and other violations by both motorcyclists and other drivers, the CHP’s Clear Lake Area will deploy additional officers on Highway 20 and Highway 29.
The operation will commence on May 22 and May 25.
To assist the CHP in this traffic safety effort, the Office of Traffic Safety, through the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, has awarded a grant titled “Get Educated and Ride Safe II.”
With the grant-funding, the Clear Lake Area will continue to deploy additional enforcement efforts through Sept. 30.
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- Written by: Jan Cook
The Summer Reading Program is a fun way to challenge yourself to read more over the summer. For students, reading over summer break can prevent summer learning loss and help them start the next school year out on the right page.
The library has programs for pre-K, kids, teens, and adults. Children who can't quite read on their own can still sign up and parents can record the books that you read together.
No matter which program you choose, you will log your reading for points. The only differences between the programs are the prizes you might win, the recommended reading lists, and the activities and games available online.
Once sign-ups start on May 16 you can register on our special Summer Reading website and at any time during the program. Just head to the library website at http://library.lakecountyca.gov and click Summer Reading. Create an account for yourself and your family, register for the program that's right for you, and let the fun begin.
Once you’re signed up you can start reading books and logging your reading online to get points. You get points by logging your reading.
When you log books, each book is worth 40 points. When you log pages, each page read is worth 1 point.
As you get more points you unlock digital badges, games, and activities. At 1,000 points you complete the reading log and the Friends of the Library will donate a book to the library. The book will have your name inside commemorating your achievement and you will be the first person to check it out.
August 29 is the last day to log points on your account.
You can also read eBooks or listen audiobooks to participate. The library offers an array of digital eBooks and audiobooks through Hoopla, Overdrive and Enki, all accessible with your Lake County Library card.
Reading is its own reward, but we also offer prizes to make the program more fun. There will be prize drawings throughout the summer. The more points you have the greater chance you have to win.
There are also missions, which are fun activities that award a digital badge if you complete them. It's a rumor that missions might help you win prizes!
Participating in a summer reading program helps encourage habits that make reading a lifelong habit. Reading over the summer helps children keep their skills up and generates interest in books and literacy.
If you have other questions contact the library at 707-263-8817. Leave a message and the next available employee will reply.
With a library card, patrons can access the library’s array of digital services without the need to visit a local branch. If you need a library card, you can create an online card with the application form on the library website. If you have a question about an existing library account, call 707-263-8817 and leave a message. Library staff will be available by phone during normal operating hours to assist with the digital resources. The Lake County Library continues to offer services during the COVID19 stay at home. If you want to keep up with library news, sign up for free weekly email updates on the library’s homepage.
Jan Cook is a library technician for the Lake County Library.