The battle over a global energy transition is on between petro-states and electro-states – here’s what to watch for in 2026

Solar power has been expanding quickly, but natural gas is also booming. Gerard Julien/AFP via Getty Images

Two years ago, countries around the world set a goal of “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner.” The plan included tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency gains by 2030 – important steps for slowing climate change since the energy sector makes up about 75% of the global carbon dioxide emissions that are heating up the planet.

The world is making progress: More than 90% of new power capacity added in 2024 came from renewable energy sources, and 2025 saw similar growth.

However, fossil fuel production is also still expanding. And the United States, the world’s leading producer of both oil and natural gas, is now aggressively pressuring countries to keep buying and burning fossil fuels.

The energy transition was not meant to be a main topic when world leaders and negotiators met at the 2025 United Nations climate summit, COP30, in November in Belém, Brazil. But it took center stage from the start to the very end, bringing attention to the real-world geopolitical energy debate underway and the stakes at hand.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began the conference by calling for the creation of a formal road map, essentially a strategic process in which countries could participate to “overcome dependence on fossil fuels.” It would take the global decision to transition away from fossil fuels from words to action.

President Lula Da Silva gestures with his hands as he speaks in front of a picture of the Amazon.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva speaks at COP30, where he promoted the idea of a road map to help the world speed up its transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. AP Photo/Andre Penner)

More than 80 countries said they supported the idea, ranging from vulnerable small island nations like Vanuatu that are losing land and lives from sea level rise and more intense storms, to countries like Kenya that see business opportunities in clean energy, to Australia, a large fossil-fuel-producing country.

Opposition, led by the Arab Group’s oil- and gas-producing countries, kept any mention of a “road map” energy transition plan out of the final agreement from the climate conference, but supporters are pushing ahead.

I was in Belém for COP30, and I follow developments closely as former special climate envoy and head of delegation for Germany and senior fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. The fight over whether there should even be a road map shows how much countries that depend on fossil fuels are working to slow down the transition, and how others are positioning themselves to benefit from the growth of renewables. And it is a key area to watch in 2026.

The battle between electro-states and petro-states

Brazilian diplomat and COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago has committed to lead an effort in 2026 to create two road maps: one on halting and reversing deforestation and another on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner.

What those road maps will look like is still unclear. They are likely to be centered on a process for countries to discuss and debate how to reverse deforestation and phase out fossil fuels.

Over the coming months, Corrêa plans to convene high-level meetings among global leaders, including fossil fuel producers and consumers, international organizations, industries, workers, scholars and advocacy groups.

For the road map to both be accepted and be useful, the process will need to address the global market issues of supply and demand, as well as equity. For example, in some fossil fuel-producing countries, oil, gas or coal revenues are the main source of income. What can the road ahead look like for those countries that will need to diversify their economies?

A man speaks into a microphone. Behind him, a person holds a sign reading: 'Shell: Own up, clean up, pay up'
Nigeria’s Bodo community is suing Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, an oil consortium that acquired Shell’s Nigerian subsidiary, over two major oil spills in the Niger Delta in 2008. Shell admitted liability and settled with the community in 2014, committing to cleanup efforts. However, the Bodo community has been critical of the quality and transparency of Shell’s cleanup, and is seeking further damages and remediation. Here, activists protest the company’s actions. Leon Neal/Getty Images

Nigeria is an interesting case study for weighing that question.

Oil exports consistently provide the bulk of Nigeria’s revenue, accounting for around 80% to over 90% of total government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. At the same time, roughly 39% of Nigeria’s population has no access to electricity, which is the highest proportion of people without electricity of any nation. And Nigeria possesses abundant renewable energy resources across the country, which are largely untapped: solar, hydro, geothermal and wind, providing new opportunities.

What a road map might look like

In Belém, representatives talked about creating a road map that would be science-based and aligned with the Paris climate agreement, and would include various pathways to achieve a just transition for fossil-fuel-dependent regions.

Some inspiration for helping fossil-fuel-producing countries transition to cleaner energy could come from Brazil and Norway.

In Brazil, Lula asked his ministries to prepare guidelines for developing a road map for gradually reducing Brazil’s dependency on fossil fuels and find a way to financially support the changes.

His decree specifically mentions creating an energy transition fund, which could be supported by government revenues from oil and gas exploration. While Brazil supports moving away from fossil fuels, it is also still a large oil producer and recently approved new exploratory drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River.

Norway, a major oil and gas producer, is establishing a formal transition commission to study and plan its economy’s shift away from fossil fuels, particularly focusing on how the workforce and the natural resources of Norway can be used more effectively to create new and different jobs.

Both countries are just getting started, but their work could help point the way for other countries and inform a global road map process.

The European Union has implemented a series of policies and laws aimed at reducing fossil fuel demand. It has a target for 42.5% of its energy to come from renewable sources by 2030. And its EU Emissions Trading System, which steadily reduces the emissions that companies can emit, will soon be expanded to cover housing and transportation. The Emissions Trading System already includes power generation, energy-intensive industry and civil aviation.

Fossil fuel and renewable energy growth ahead

In the U.S., the Trump administration has made clear through its policymaking and diplomacy that it is pursuing the opposite approach: to keep fossil fuels as the main energy source for decades to come.

The International Energy Agency still expects to see renewable energy grow faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios going forward, as renewable energy’s lower costs make it an attractive option in many countries. Globally, the agency expects investment in renewable energy in 2025 to be twice that of fossil fuels.

At the same time, however, fossil fuel investments are also rising with fast-growing energy demand.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook described a surge in new funding for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, projects in 2025. It now expects a 50% increase in global LNG supply by 2030, about half of that from the U.S. However, the World Energy Outlook notes that “questions still linger about where all the new LNG will go” once it’s produced.

What to watch for

The Belém road map dialogue and how it balances countries’ needs will reflect on the world’s ability to handle climate change.

Corrêa plans to report on its progress at the next annual U.N. climate conference, COP31, in late 2026. The conference will be hosted by Turkey, but Australia, which supported the call for a road map, will be leading the negotiations.

With more time to discuss and prepare, COP31 may just bring a transition away from fossil fuels back into the global negotiations.The Conversation

Jennifer Morgan, Senior Fellow, Center for International Environment and Resource Policy and Climate Policy Lab, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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City of Clearlake declares emergency over massive Robin Lane sewage spill

This still image from drone footage shows the Robin Lane sewage spill stretching down a roadway and onto properties. 


LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The city of Clearlake has declared a local emergency in response to a massive ongoing sewage spill that began on Sunday due to a failure in the county-managed wastewater system.

The incident on Robin Lane, which began on Sunday morning, has impacted dozens of homes in and around the city of Clearlake, spilling raw sewage that has flooded the area south of Pond
Road, north of Rumsey Road, east of Pamela Lane and west of Robin Lane, and spreading into drainage ditches, waterways, Burns Valley Creek and Clear Lake, officials reported.

The wastewater system is managed by the Lake County Sanitation District, or Lacosan, which is under Lake County Special Districts, headed by Administrator Robin Borre.

Lacosan has urged property owners to use bottled water only and not use private well water over concerns for contamination, with an emergency station for clean drinking water having been established at Pond Road and Old Highway 53. 

Water provided by public water systems remains safe to use, Special Districts reported.

While posts on social media sites included statements from area residents about the extent of the spill — with at least one estimating more than 2.5 million gallons released — on Monday afternoon, county spokesman Trevor Mockel said the extent of the release had not yet been fully calculated due to the ongoing nature of the response and repair work.

He said Lake County Special Districts “is actively mitigating the situation to stem the spread while repairs are underway, and assessments are continuing in real time.”

Mockel added, “Until crews are able to fully access the forced main and complete a thorough assessment, all we can confirm at this point is that the forced main failed underground.”

He said a confirmed cause of the failure “will only be determined after repairs are complete and a full evaluation of the line can be conducted.”

Clearlake City Manager Alan Flora told Lake County News that multiple repairs were supposedly completed on Monday, but when he was on-site of the spill’s source in the afternoon, it was still leaking.

“No city facilities have been impacted yet,” Flora said. 

Flora said the city helped with traffic control on Sunday “but that is the only request we have received” to assist the county. 

Video of the spill site shared by the city of Clearlake showed the wastewater flowing down roadways, across fields and yards, with pumper trucks and large hoses in place throughout the area.

The Robin Lane sewage spill spread across multiple properties. Photo courtesy of the city of Clearlake.

Emergency declaration gives more details on spill

On Monday night, Flora issued the city’s emergency proclamation, which is expected to be ratified by the Clearlake City Council at its first meeting of the year on Thursday.

The document gave greater details about the incident, which began at 7:45 a.m. Sunday when a 16-inch force main located on Robin Lane ruptured, spilling raw sewage.

The proclamation noted that “the spill quickly resulted in raw sewage flooding the area south of Pond Road and north of Rumsey Road, east of Pamela Lane and west of Robin Lane.”

The city reported that an estimated 58 properties within the spill’s footprint have been directly impacted, “with the majority of those homes using private wells for water supply.”

The document also noted, “multiple faulty valves prohibited isolating the leak and the leak continues up to this point,” and “impacts to the properties, the underlying aquifer, the City’s storm drainage system, road network, creeks and waterways, Clear Lake and many residents is on-going and still unknown in total scope.”

The city’s proclamation requests that the county of Lake and Lacosan also declare a local emergency and a public health emergency.

With the emergency declaration, the city also is seeking from the governor a proclamation declaring an emergency in the city of Clearlake. 

The city’s declaration opens the door for the city to receive recovery assistance from the state and help through federal disaster relief programs.

If the spill is in fact in the millions of gallons, it would put it on par with an April 2006 incident in which between 3.6 and 6 million gallons of treated wastewater ran off the City of Lakeport Municipal Sewer District site, into a tributary of Clear Lake and eventually into the lake itself.

That event resulted in the city being required to make numerous upgrades to its wastewater system in order to address state actions including a hookup ban.

Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, and on Bluesky, @erlarson.bsky.social. Find Lake County News on the following platforms: Facebook, @LakeCoNews; X, @LakeCoNews; Threads, @lakeconews, and on Bluesky, @lakeconews.bsky.social. 

Sewer Spill Emergency Declaration 1-12-26 by LakeCoNews

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County officials say years of internal reserve spending led to Community Development Department deficit

LAKE COUNTY, Calif.  – What led to the Lake County Community Development Department’s deficit just months after approval of its final budget, necessitating a loan request to the Board of Supervisors to support the department’s operations?

It wasn’t just a drop in building permits that drove the Community Development Department into the red. It was a years-long practice of spending about $1 million in Building Division reserves to prop up other divisions, officials revealed in December.

When the Community Development Department, or CDD, requested a $390,000 emergency loan from the county on Nov. 18 to meet payrolls amid a budget deficit — just two months after supervisors approved a “balanced” budget — CDD Director Mireya Turner attributed the shortfall to “a significant drop in building permits.” 

But on Dec. 9, staff exposed a deeper structural issue at the Board of Supervisors meeting: The department’s Building Division, which is funded primarily by building permit fees, had been effectively using the division reserve to subsidize the Planning and Code Enforcement divisions for multiple years until the reserve was drained.

The years-long transfer of Building Division reserves within CDD went through multiple budget cycles without being identified and corrected by the county’s budgeting process that involved the department, the administrative office as well as the Board of Supervisors.

While the board directed staff to provide further analysis in January, questions regarding the legality of transferring division reserves remain unanswered, as does the concern of paying back general fund loans using income from future permitting costs.

“The source of this problem is a slow and steady trend of reserve spending,” CDD Deputy Administrator Shannon Walker-Smith told the board on Dec. 9. 

“Most of that is due to contributions to Code and Planning department operations that began in Fiscal Year 2022-23 when Building’s reserves have gotten significantly high,” Walker-Smith said, indicating that the Building Division’s reserve got up to over $900,000 at that time. 

“So the Community Development [Department] was directed to start spending down those reserves as was appropriate at the time,” she said. “Unfortunately, that spending continued.”

Deputy County Administrative Officer Casey Moreno later cited a higher figure, saying more than $1 million had been internally transferred to cover salaries in the receiving divisions.

“Over the past three years, about $1.1 million has been transferred as contributions to those divisions, while just over a million was for salaries,” Moreno said. “Last year, the amount transferred to Code nearly doubled.”

“We did know reserves were spending down, you know, at a rate that was unsustainable,” Walker-Smith said during her presentation. “But it's very difficult when most of the budget revenue is locked up in salaries and other obligated expenses.” 

Department records showed the internal transfer of reserves, labeled as “contributions,” started as early as fiscal year 2020-21 at about $400,000 and peaked at almost $800,000 in fiscal year 2023-24. 


Fiscal year 2023-24 “would have been a good time for us to start looking at course correction,” Walker-Smith said. “But unfortunately, that did not happen.”

Turner admitted that it was her “error” as the department head to “take on the direction of spending down the reserves without a proper full-circle understanding of where that stops and like the long term use of those reserves,” she said. “So I do apologize for that.”

The admission marks a distinct shift in the department's narrative over just three weeks: what was first presented as an external shock — a drop in permitting revenue — is now acknowledged as a result of internal financial decisions.

Lake County News reached out to the county asking about the conflicting explanations of the CDD’s deficit. 

Chief Deputy County Administrative Officer Matthew Rothstein, the administrative office’s spokesperson, said the CDD staff shared “initial impressions” in November with the intent to conduct further analysis. 

“From a budgetary standpoint, revenue did not support appropriations,” Rothstein said in an email on Dec. 11, indicating the department was spending more than it was bringing in. “However, further analysis revealed reserve spending in recent budget years was the greater concern.”

“Director Turner acknowledged that the recent investigation had grown her understanding,” he added.

The financial “course correction” that officials admit was needed years ago appeared to be happening now. 

“Immediately, we have a pause on all intradepartmental funding,” Walker-Smith said. “So no more contributions from Building to Code and Planning, beginning this entire fiscal year.” 

However, the sudden stop of these internal transfers creates an immediate hole in the Code and Planning budgets, which rely on that money for salaries.

“That’s a direct 100% hit to the general fund that obviously we don't necessarily have,” said Assistant County Administrative Officer Stephen Carter. “We need to work out part of that plan at the same time.”

Carter suggested coming up with a CDD plan, not just a plan for the Building Division. 

Staff from the CDD, Administrative Office, and County Counsel are scheduled to provide further analysis of the financial problem, repayment plan, and legality at the Board of Supervisors meeting this Tuesday, at 2 p.m. 

Repayment proposal: Extended from one year to three years

The resolution of the CDD loan approved in November requires a full payback by June 30, 2026 — the end of the current fiscal year. 

“We do anticipate a return to historic norms of permitting in the future, and are confident that we will be able to repay this loan within the fiscal year,” Turner said.

All supervisors at that time said they were skeptical about the viability of the plan. Nonetheless, they voted unanimously to approve the request, with Supervisor Eddie Crandell absent.

“Obviously we have to do something; We’ve got to make payroll,” Supervisor Brad Rasmussen said back then. 

“But I don’t see how we’re going to get paid back,” Supervisor Jessica Pyska added.  

In December, staff reiterated that confidence — but with a significantly extended timeline.
“We do think we can recover and rebuild this budget within a three-year period,” said Walker-Smith.

Carter said the reason for the three-year proposal is because the department needs to build back their reserve which is now depleted. 

Without recovering the reserves, “every July, they’ll have a cash flow problem where they would need a loan of about two months worth of salary,” Carter said. “So that's why, at the same time as paying us back, you need to put a little bit in reserve.”

Supervisors were less skeptical about the longer repayment timeline. 

“I’m comfortable with the three-year repayment, because I think it's important to be able to build reserves while at the same time paying that back,” said Supervisor Rasmussen.

Still, Supervisor Bruno Sabatier warned that there is an opportunity cost with loans the county gives out.

“Anything that we loan out is coming out of our general fund reserves,” he said, adding that these reserves are being invested and generating revenues in the pool. “We’re losing that.”

He continued: “We’re handing — wrong term — we are ‘providing support’ in loans which take away from our taxpayers’ dollars to be invested and create more dollars to put back into services, into our community.”  

“So the longer the loan is, the more we lose out on those opportunities,” Sabatier added.

Right now, the county has given out two loans to avoid disruptions in departmental operations. 

In addition to the $390,000 lent to CDD, the Board of Supervisors in June approved a $2 million loan to Behavioral Health which initially required payback within 90 days. That deadline was not met.

In September, the board approved a 180-day extension for the repayment with Sabatier the sole dissenting vote. 

The December meeting did not result in any formal changes to the CDD’s loan agreement. 

Concerns on legality of loan repayment and reserve spending

At the November meeting, Supervisor Sabatier said he had “grave concerns” about a repayment plan that depends on future permit revenues. 

At that time, he noted that the county is not supposed to “make money off” the rates on county services, raising doubts on the legality of using future permit revenues to pay for services rendered in the past. 

In December, Sabatier brought it up again.

Sabatier said he received a “white paper” from staff saying it is allowable to use permit fees for the loan repayment — and that he disagrees. 

“I just don't understand how a developer in March can pay a fee that helps repay for salaries spent in October,” he said. “That, to me, makes no sense at all.”

Sabatier’s concerns were also compounded by the new discovery of reserve transfers and overspending. 

“I do still have concerns in the way that we have used our funds, the sense that we've used reserves from Building to help pay for Planning — completely different projects.”

Lake County News requested a copy of the “white paper” from the county after the December meeting. Rothstein said in an email that the document was “not disclosable on grounds including attorney-client privilege and attorney work-product privilege.”

What is the legal justification for using these restricted funds of the Building Division to subsidize other divisions? Has the Board of Supervisors authorized such transfers, or is there a section of county code that permits them? 

Lake County News posed these questions in the same request to the county. 

Rothstein’s response did not provide an immediate reference to county code. He reiterated the unavailability of a legal explanation. “As previously noted, legal analysis supporting those statements is not disclosable at this time.”

He added that County Counsel Lloyd Guintivano will be prepared to publicly discuss some of the issues in January.  

Unanswered questions

However, as of the last public discussion in December, many questions regarding the department’s financial decisions and the county’s budgeting oversight remained untouched:

How had the Building Division accumulated a reserve pool of over $900,000 in the first place? Who or what processes directed and authorized the inter-division transfer of those reserves for years? Why wasn’t a “course correction” made sooner — and why did the Board of Supervisors and county staff only appear to recognize the problem after the division reserve was drained and a loan was needed to cover salaries? 

Why didn’t this discussion surface at the June budget hearings — or at least, prior to the final budget approval in September? 

“The Administrative Office relies on departments who accurately project their financial needs to sustain operations,” Moreno said at one point, before she went into details of the CDD’s reserve spending. “During the annual budgeting process, we meet with each department to review their budget and as needed throughout the year.”

Later, Turner of CDD briefly brought up the lack of sufficient, productive time with the administrative office during budgeting. 

“Additionally, in preparation for this meeting, we have had a number of meetings with admin that have been productive and helpful,” Turner said. “And there, we were able to have the types of discussions that we don't usually get to have when we're preparing a budget, because they're busy with everybody's budgets, and so we get a little bit of time.”

Email staff reporter Lingzi Chen at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. 

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Lakeport Planning Commission to consider allowing temporary cannabis events at fairgrounds

LAKEPORT, Calif. — The Lakeport Planning Commission will consider an ordinance to change city code to allow for temporary cannabis events at the Lake County Fairgrounds.

The commission will meet at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 14, in the council chambers at Lakeport City Hall, 225 Park St.

The agenda is available here.

To speak on an agenda item, access the meeting remotely here; the meeting ID is 814 1135 4347, pass code is 847985. 

To join by phone, dial 1-669-444-9171; for one tap mobile, +16694449171,,81411354347#,,,,*847985#.

Comments can be submitted by email to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. To give the city clerk adequate time to print out comments for consideration at the meeting, please submit written comments before 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 14.

The commission’s main item of business is its consideration of the recommendation of an ordinance amending sections of the Lakeport Municipal Code regarding commercial cannabis events.

Specifically, the proposed changes would allow limited temporary cannabis events at the Lake County Fairgrounds, whose chief executive officer recently contacted the city about a proposal to host a temporary cannabis event this spring with cannabis retail sales permitted, according to a report to the commission from Community Development Director Joey Hejnowicz.

“The Lake County Fairgrounds has expressed interest in hosting a cannabis-related event as part of its broader, year-round event programming strategy intended to increase community engagement, attract visitors, and support the long-term financial sustainability of the Fairgrounds,” Hejnowicz wrote. “The Fairgrounds regularly hosts large, managed events and has the infrastructure, staffing capacity, and security experience necessary to accommodate specialized, regulated events.”

He said the proposed cannabis event “is envisioned as a springtime gathering designed to showcase and celebrate Lake County's local cannabis growers and farmers, many of whom are long-standing agricultural producers within the region. The event would combine cannabis-related programming with live music and entertainment to create a destination-style
event that highlights Lake County's unique agricultural identity and emerging cannabis economy.”

Hejnowicz’s report said the amendment to the municipal code “is structured as a prohibition citywide with a limited exception at a single established venue,” in this case, the fairgrounds, and requires compliance with state law and all Department of Cannabis Control license conditions. 

Staff is recommending the commission adopt the draft ordinance with the changes and find that the proposed amendment to Chapter 5.34 of the Lakeport Municipal Code “appropriately balances local control with state cannabis regulations, supports economic development and community events at an established venue, and maintains robust safeguards to protect public health, safety, and welfare.”

Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, and on Bluesky, @erlarson.bsky.social. Find Lake County News on the following platforms: Facebook, @LakeCoNews; X, @LakeCoNews; Threads, @lakeconews, and on Bluesky, @lakeconews.bsky.social. 

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Written by: Elizabeth Larson

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